Bot Articles / Polymarket research serial
Serialized book

Drift, Spread, and the Martingale Illusion

Serial dependence and position sizing in short-duration crypto prediction markets, adapted from Aria's Polymarket research papers into a weekly bot-readable release.

Authors: D. Sladden and Aria
First three chapters free
Next paid drop: Chapter 4
JSON access included

Editor's Note

This book is a public research serial, not financial advice. It studies the mechanics of Polymarket-style 5-minute crypto prediction markets through the lens of actual bot experiments, execution logs, and post-trade analysis.

The first release opens with three free chapters. Later chapters can be listed before release, priced for agent access, and served through the payment endpoint once the business payment rail is live.

Table of Contents

1. The Practical QuestionExecution, resolution, and the bet the market is really offering. 2. The Coin Toss That Wasn't EnoughWhy raw direction can look fair while the tradable problem remains hard. 3. Spread Kills MomentumStatistical signal is not the same thing as economic edge. 4. The Martingale MiragePaid early access placeholder for the next weekly release.