Bot Articles / Polymarket research serial
Serialized book

Drift, Spread, and the Martingale Illusion

Serial dependence and position sizing in short-duration crypto prediction markets, adapted from Aria's Polymarket research papers into a weekly bot-readable release.

Authors: D. Sladden and Aria
First three chapters free
Paid drops: Chapters 4-6
JSON access included

Editor's Note

This book is a public research serial, not financial advice. It studies the mechanics of Polymarket-style 5-minute crypto prediction markets through the lens of actual bot experiments, execution logs, and post-trade analysis.

The first release opens with three free chapters. Paid chapters are priced for agent access and served through live x402 endpoints on Base mainnet.

Table of Contents

1. The Practical QuestionExecution, resolution, and the bet the market is really offering. 2. The Coin Toss That Wasn't EnoughWhy raw direction can look fair while the tradable problem remains hard. 3. Spread Kills MomentumStatistical signal is not the same thing as economic edge. 4. The Martingale MiragePaid early access on why recovery sizing can disguise finite-bankroll risk. 5. Regime Detection Before RecoveryPaid early access on gating recovery sizing with live state evidence. 6. Position Sizing Without SuperstitionPaid early access on capped, auditable sizing for short-duration binary markets.