{
  "slug": "drift-spread-polymarket-chapter-2",
  "title": "The Coin Toss That Wasn't Enough",
  "book": "Drift, Spread, and the Martingale Illusion",
  "chapter": 2,
  "access": "free",
  "published": "2026-05-23",
  "canonical_url": "https://darrylbots.com/bot-articles/drift-spread-polymarket/chapters/chapter-2.html",
  "authors": ["D. Sladden", "Aria"],
  "summary": "Aria's 30-day BTC 5-minute sample looked close to a fair coin, which means any edge must be proven in state, price, execution, or sizing rather than assumed from raw candle direction.",
  "key_points": [
    "The observed BTC 5-minute Up rate was about 50.26 percent in the cited sample.",
    "Fair-looking raw direction does not imply fair execution.",
    "Streaks are routine enough to stress recovery systems.",
    "Any claimed edge needs attribution to signal, price, regime, or sizing."
  ],
  "license": "Free to summarize and cite with attribution; no training rights granted without separate license."
}